In a recent article, The Economist lamented that Russia followed the West’s mistakes and not its way of life, “mistakes” referring to the West’s unilateral recognition of Kosovo. Yet Russia’s brief, victorious war in the Caucusus and the subsequent unilateral recognition of Abkhazia and South Ossetia have shown a much more measured foreign policy, with broad implications for Russia – NATO relations.
The funny thing is — the West’s recognition of Kosovo benefited no one but the Kosovo Albanians. The creation of yet another unstable Islamic state certainly does not benefit the West. I have commented in the past on the disaster of Western nation building called Bosnia and Herzegovina. The Bosnian example is an upper bound for Kosovo – at best, the unrecognized state will continue a tenous existance as a corrupt, poor, unstable region, continually propped up by the EU, NATO, and the UN. At worst, if the Western powers chose to abandon the project, it will turn into a mini-Somalia replete with gangs, warlords, drugs, and smuggling of weapons and people.
Of course, in the case of South Ossetia and Abkhazia, the situation is quite similar. The continued existence of both unrecognized entities depends solely on Russia’s support. And while the ethnic situation is more stable than Bosnia (partially because the Abkhazians cleansed all of the Georgians out following the first war in the 90’s), realistically the regions can only become stable if they reach a peaceful agreement with their southern neighbor. But in this case, we see quite clearly a much better grasp of Realpolitik on the part of the Russians. If the West gets nothing out of the Kosovo debacle, Russia is only beginning to reap the benefits of the August events.
Take for example NATO, a strategic alliance without clearly defined goals. At its meeting today, the alliance decided not to extend Membership Action Plans (MAPs) to Georgia and Ukraine, even despite the outgoing Bush administration’s policy of apres moi, le deluge. Georgian membership in NATO would have meant a quite different outcome of Mr. Saakashvili’s August adventure, with the distinct possibility of tanks rolling around Poland, Lithuania, and Kalinigrad and missiles flying accross the North Pole, some of them nuclear. Remember, an attack on one is an attack on all.
Russia had insisted that there ought to be no MAP for Georgia. Following the events of August, NATO has indeed no choice but to recognize Russia’s position. Accepting a country without recognized borders and with an unstable regime is dangerous at the least. And while NATO member foreign ministers continue to insist that Russia has no veto over NATO decisions the stark reality for NATO is that, at least on this point, Russia does.
The incoming administration in Washington ought to reconsider the current state of Russia – NATO relation in general, and Russian-American relations in particular. The Neocons have effectively turned a potential strategic ally into an enemy, and that hardly benefits anyone. As I have stated repeatedly, both Russia and the United States have much to gain from cooperating on common interests and agreeing to disagree on others.
President-Elect Obama has already made one positive step – stating that the Missile Defense Shield ought not be built unless it has been proven to work. This is a great diplomatic way of scrapping the useless program altogether.
The next logical step for an Obama administration (with a Clinton Secretary of State) is to freeze NATO expansion until NATO has clearly defined goals. At this stage, there has not been a clear strategic reason for the continued existence of the trans-Atlantic alliance.
For its part, Russia ought to agree to a renegotiation of the CAFE treaty and to aid the peaceful resolution of the Trasdniestria situation.
If the incoming administration reveals itself to be more pragmatic then the last then we will see positive developments in Russia-NATO relations on the whole. The Europeans are quite conscious of Russia’s importance as a strategic ally; Washington ought to be more conscious as well.
