On Friday, Georgia invaded South Ossetia and used tanks and artillery to pound Tskhinvali into oblivion. Russia responded by sending its troops across the border and bombing Georgian military installations with its air force.
Whole books have been written on the causes of war, and this one will be no exception. So who’s got what to lose and what to gain from war in South Ossetia?
A bit of history
Ossetins are a small ethnic group in the North Caucasus. In 1774, they petitioned the tsar to be received into “free association” with the Russian Empire (sort of like Puerto Rico is a commonwealth in free association with the United States). In the 1920’s, by the decision of the Georgian-born Soviet dictator Iosif Djugashvili (better known to the world as Joseph Stalin) Ossetia was split into two parts — the northern becoming part of the Russian SFSR, and the southern joining the Transcaucasian SFSR, and then Georgia. In 1989, during the collapse of the Soviet Union, South Ossetia declared independence. After a brief war, Georgia and South Ossetia signed a truce with South Ossetia de facto independent, though not internationally recognized, and Russia guaranteeing the peace.
The pay-off matrix
In the latest conflict, the looser is undoubtedly Russia, regardless of the outcome. Remember that Russia is a traditional conservative power and it has the most to gain from the status quo. Any escalation of conflict in the Caucasus is bad for Russia, its economy, and its stability. The stock market already responded by falling 9% in one day. Prime Minister Vladimir Putin rushed from China to Vladikavkaz to calm the North Ossetins (who have already sent volunteers across the Russian-Georgian border). Russia’s grip on power has always been loose in the Caucasus, so further destabilization is at risk.
The best Russia can hope for is a speedy and decisive victory, driving the Georgians back south and restoring the pre-August 8 status quo. That will, so to speak, minimize the damage.
On the flip side, it’s not clear what the payoff matrix is for Georgia. It’s as obvious to Georgian President Mikhail Saakashvili as to anyone else that Georgia cannot stand in a full-blown conflict with its giant neighbor to the North. In addition, one will hardly be able to persuade South Ossetia to re-enter Georgia peacefully, under any conditions of autonomy, after leveling 75% of Tskhinvali and killing 1,500-2,000 civilians.
But if Saakashvili cannot win the military war, he’s hoping to win the war of public opinion. And the Georgian President is master of propaganda.
He’s already doing extremely well. His televised addresses to the nation are a carefully choreographed show. Just note the background — behind Mr. Saakashvili stand the flags of Georgia and the European Union. If anyone had any doubts, Georgia is not a member of the EU; nor has it even been invited to join.
“Russia invades Georgia,” “Russia Is Waging `Full-Scale War’ Over S. Ossetia”. These are just some of the headlines in the Western media. The headlines are backed up by photographs of what appear to be Russian aircraft bombing Georgian towns and Georgian troops getting ready in Gori, just south of the front line (by the way, they’re lining up in front of a statue of Stalin, the local hero, who was born in Gori). Talk of destruction in Tskhinvali, 1,500 civilians dead and 35,000 refugees is renegated to the bottom of most articles. Most Western media have given support to Saakashvili’s comparison with the Soviet invasion of Finland in 1939 or Hitler’s invasion of Czechoslovakia the same year.
A War of Misinformation
Western audiences have proven themselves to be gullible to such television and newspaper propaganda. Afterall, it was NATO that fully perfected the art of television war in Kosovo.
But the question still remains: what has Georgia to gain from escalated conflict in South Ossetia? William Cohen, the former US Defense Secretary, said that Tbilisi’s assault was not without American backing. Given Saakashvili’s hopes to join NATO, he is probably not far from the truth. The Bush Administration has been increasingly supportive of Georgia’s aspirations of NATO membership. But the election in the United States is right around the corner — it’s unclear that an Obama Administration (which looks increasingly more likely) would be willing to risk confrontation with Russia over NATO expansion. While Mr. Obama’s rhetoric on Russia remains tuff, his policies will be more pragmatic. But the conflict could impact the outcome of the election. Any foreign crisis will be used in the American media to bring out John McCain’s foreign policy record and Barack Obama’s weaknesses.
It’s also unclear that other NATO members would support Georgia’s bid. Had Georgia been a member of the alliance on August 8, NATO would have been forced into a full-blown war with Russia. America’s European allies have much more to lose from conflict with Russia (hot or cold) than Washington. You don’t pick a fight with the guys who own your gas.
Of course, NATO doesn’t have to fight Russia with NATO troops. The concept of “proxy war”, used by the Soviets in Vietnam and the Americans in Afghanistan (the first time around), is well known. And American military equipment and dollars have been pouring into Georgia ever since the “Rose Revolution.” Modern Russia is not the Russia of the 90s, but it’s still no match for American military equipment, no matter who fires it — Americans or Georgians.
The Casualties
With Tskhinvali in ruins and 35,000 refugees pouring into Russia, the humanitarian situation is grim. There have been reports of Ossetin villages ethnically cleansed by the Georgian military. The Tskhinvali hospital was repeatedly bombed. In any game of politcal chess between superpowers, the civilian population is always the biggest looser.
Perhaps the only bright side is that Russia can solidify its role as the guarantor of peace not only in South Ossetia but in the region at large. Vladimir Putin’s government has already issued 500 million rubles ($25 million) to North Ossetia to cope with the immediate effects of the humanitarian crisis. Mr. Putin is pledging a further 10 billion rubles for the reconstruction of Tskhinvali. One can only hope that President Medvedev’s anti-corruption policies are working and that the money will indeed go to those in need.
Mr. Medvedev cannot win the war of information in the West, but he can win the hearts and minds of ordinary Ossetins. That’s exactly what he needs to do.
[...] 18, 2008 by typiconman In my prior coverage of Georgia’s invasion of South Ossetia, I posited that what Russia needed most was a quick [...]
For Russia that has occured in South Ossetia on August, 8th when Georgia has attacked Ossetia, the same, that for the USA towers-twins on September, 11th. Quantity of victims respective. Saakashvili the rockets has killed more than 1500 peace inhabitants, and CITIZENS of the Russian Federation! That I see now is there would be the same as though after tragedy on September, 11th 2001, any country has supported Аль-Каиду and in support Ben Ladanu has sent 18 military ships in the help to terrorists. Be on a place of the Russian Federation the USA, for a long time Saakashvili would be hung up. And the USA supported all this time ” Caucasian Ben Ladana “.
I.e. that now I see me in mass-media of the Europe horrifies – Russia has attacked small Georgia… That would be if Russian tanks have not entered into Ossetia, that, not having protected the peace population, probably, defenders of human rights does not interest any more, only as Russian kill everything, bears fat… Well it in fact, you see, is immoral also it so awfully. Has still seen a photo with the signature ” Russian attack to Georgia ” – why do not publish a photo as the Georgian militarians have alive burnt the house with children and old men about whom Putin and as they killed peacemakers spoke.
Georgia has attacked Ossetia, instead of the Russian Federation to Georgia – in mass-media is even huge quantity links to references of the European editions which refer to ” information war “. Western mass-media are not absolutely pure, give not the true information, in particular the Air Forces, therefore it is not necessary to accuse the Russian Federation of all sins at once. The picture which was drawn with the western mass-media, essentially differed from the validity.
I do not work to the Kremlin, or on Putin as many European mass-media can think. I the simple inhabitant, and this my opinion. Sorry for my English.
Для России то, что произошло в Южной Осетии 8 августа, когда Грузия напала на Осетию, то же самое, что для США башни-близнецы 11 сентября. Количество жертв соответственные. Саакашвили своими ракетами убил более 1500 мирных жителей, причем ГРАЖДАН РФ! Что я вижу сейчас – это было бы то же самое, как если бы после трагедии 11 сентября 2001, какая-либо страна поддержала Аль-Каиду и в поддержку Бен Ладану отправила 18 военных кораблей в помощь террористам. Будь на месте РФ США, давно бы Саакашвили был повешен. А США всё это время поддерживали “Кавказского Бен Ладана”.
Т.е. то, что сейчас я вижу в масс-медия европы меня ужасает – Россия напала на маленькую Грузию… что бы было если бы русские танки не вошли в Осетию, тем самым, не защитив мирное население, видимо, защитников прав человека уже не интересует, только как русские убивают всех, медведи жирные… Ну это ведь, согласитесь, аморально и это так ужасно.
Ещё увидел фотографию с подписью “Русская атака на Грузию” – почему же не публикуют фотографии, как грузинские военные заживо спалили дом с детьми и стариками, о которых говорил Путин, и как они убивали миротворцев.
Именно Грузия напала на Осетию, а не РФ на Грузию – в масс-медия есть даже огромное кол-во ссылок на ссылки европейских изданий, которые называются “информационная война”. Западные масс-медия не совсем чисты, дают не верную информацию, в особенности ВВС, поэтому не стоит сразу обвинять РФ во всех грехах. Картина, которую нарисовали западные СМИ, существенно отличалась от действительности.
Я не работаю на Кремль, или на Путина, как многие европейские масс-медия могут подумать. Я простой обыватель, и это моё мнение.
Hi.
I am Polish and I will try to tell something about the Russian position to the conflict but from Poland-based observations. Whatever to tell it’s clear that Russia tried to gain some profits because of the conflict. A few months ago Russia benefited Abkhazians and South Osetians with Russian passports – very clear move to make destabilization in Georgia. Russians had great excuse to step in when Saakashvili tried to fight (whatever stupidly) to return Abkhazia and S. Ossetia to Georgian entity. But for Polish people it is not only problem of the war. For last about 250 years Poland was mostly occupied by Russians. Russians with Germans and Austrians partitioned all Poland between them (1775-1795). Before this Russia had own armies inside Poland. For next 123 years Polish people were subdued to Russians and Germans. When we tried to get independence, Russians destroyed our economy and killed people. Many of us were sent to Syberia or emigrated to all the world. After 21-years period of independence Poland another time was divided between Hitler’s Germany and Stalin’s Russia in 1939. Russians murdered many thousends Polish people because they were Polish in Katyn, Ostashkov etc. Stalin sent our people to Kazakhstan and Sibir, too. For next 45 years (1944-1989) we could get ‘benefits’ of Russian communism. Stalin stole in this time Polish cities as Lvov, Vilnius and Hradna. It’s true that he gave us Silesia and Pommerania from Germany but not because of his grace. Thanks to that Stalin could gain more territory on the west from Germans.
Now we can see another time Russian trial to regain his hegemony in post-Soviet countries. But until this war with Georgia, Russia used rather economical stresses that military. Poland imports gas and oil from Russia so we are depended because of that. Russia already tried to use the argument stressing Poland. Probably only way to opt out of Russian resources is to import gas and oil from post-Soviet countries as Azerbaydjan and Kazakhstan. However only way for that is just through Georgia. And here we have the problem.
Polish people experienced much badness from Russia. Russia occupied Poland for about 200 years, stealing our territory, killing our people, destroying our culture. However I don’t blame Russian civils. I’ve met many very good and nice Russians. However the key issue is Russian imperialistic mentality, which is constatly presented by Russian goverment for last a few centuries. The Georgian issue may be repeated now in Ukraine. Who knows – why not in Poland in future?
[Editor's Note: In fact, your comments are far from the truth. In 1815, at the Council of Vienna, it was Russia that called for the creation of the Kingdom of Poland, saving it from partition between Prussia and Austria. The Polish kingdom was given the broadest possible autonomy within the Russian Empire. It is noteworthy, that Russia sacrificed claims for Galicia in return for guaranteeing the existence of Poland as an autonomy. In retrospect, getting involved in Poland was a mistake. Russia should have just allowed the Germans to carve up Polish territory.]