Ukraine’s Political Drama

Despite the attempt by Ukrainian President Victor Yuschenko to sabotage the celebrations of the 1020th anniversary of the Baptism of Russia for political expediency, on the whole the event seemed to have been a success.

To his credit, Ecumenical Patriarch Bartholomew did not take the bait laid down by the Ukrainian political establishment. Other than a few (expected) Byzantinophilic remarks at the square in front of the church of the Holy Wisdom, the remainder of his speeches were balanced. He spoke of the importance of unity and the danger of introducing nationalism into the realm of religion. *

Michael Denisenko, the soi-disant Patriarch Philaret, and Yan Modzalevsky, the soi-disant Metropolitan Methodius, who head Ukraine’s two schismatic sects, did not show up at any of the events. Scandal was avoided.

On the other hand, credit is certainly due to Russia for some covert and well-played diplomacy. How else would one explain the obviously pro-Russian concert on Independence Square and the presence, in large numbers, of Nashi, the youth wing of Vladimir Putin’s United Russia Party?

In addition, one should not underestimate the importance of a face-to-face meeting between Patriarch Bartholomew and Patriarch Alexey II. Much to Yuschenko’s chagrin, the event may actually improve the tense relations between the two Patriarchates.

Now turn to the Ukrainian political arena. In the perpetually revolving Triangle of Yuschenko-Timoshenko-Yanukovich, which dominates (or, rather, is isomorphic with) Ukrainian politics, the three vertexes took their respective positions. President Yuschenko — treating Patriarch Bartholomew to a papal welcome. Former Prime-Minister and now opposition leader Victor Yanukovich — joining the Russian ambassador to meet Patriarch Alexey. The oddball in the Triangle this time was Prime Minister Yulia Timoshenko.

Timoshenko was not at Yuschenko’s botched “One nation – one church” rally in front of the church of the Holy Wisdom. She was not at the St Vladimir Hill at the concelebration of the Patriarchs Bartholomew and Alexey. She was in Carpathian Ukraine, touring the site of recent flooding.

Interestingly, almost immediately the Yuschenko administration attempted to use the Prime Minister’s absence to her own detriment. Yuschenko’s press secretary, Victor Baloga, joked to reporters that “Perhaps the head of government is not Orthodox but tends to some other faith — Shintoism or Buddhism, for example?” So reported Russia’s IA Regnum news agency.

But of course it’s Ukraine, and everything is fair game for politics, even something as odd-sounding to the Ukrainian ear as Shintoism.

Yulia Timoshenko deserves credit for at least one thing — she’s a shrewd politician. The presidential elections are fast approaching, and the political triangle, always scalene, is fast shifting. Yuschenko’s botched attempt to meddle in church affairs can only decrease his already low approval ratings.

Remember, that Ukraine is divided into two halves; the Ukrainian Orthodox Church is strong in both. On the other hand, the three vertexes of the political Triangle can only hope on the support of one half each. Victor Yanukovich is firmly grounded in the East. Not involving herself in church events can only get Timoshenko extra points in the West. The incumbent president, on the other hand, is out of luck. Remember, the one who doesn’t get a half of the country sits out the inning.  As we approach the bottom of this one, Yuschenko gets ready to sit out the next.

As always, in Ukraine it’s all really very simple. There are three vertexes to the Triangle, and on a good day any two of them are aligned against the third.

* P.S. In words reminiscent of those of Metropolitan Sergius (Stragorodsky), the Ecumenical Patriarch said, turning to President Yuschenko:

Your problems are also our problems. Your joys and your happiness are our joys and our happiness.

Pereant qui ante nos nostra dixerunt.