It doesn’t take a Sam Huntington to see that Ukraine is a cleft nation. And it doesn’t take a PhD in Political Science to see that it is a failed state.
The third election in as many years took place in Ukraine last week. The nominal outcome? Prime Minister Yanukovich’s Party of Regions with 34.4%, Timoshenko’s Bloc with 30.7%, and President Yuschenko’s Our Ukraine – Peoples’ Self-Defence with 14.2%. But that’s not what’s important.
What’s important now is the upcoming months of political jockeying, behind the scenes deals, lawsuits, and bargaining. The first Ukrainian election formed a short-lived coalition between Yuschenko and Timoshenko. It collapsed after a disagreement over porfolios. The second election gave Yanukovich enough seats to form a coalition with lesser parties. But the Rada had to be dissolved after Timoshenko’s party walked out. This election’s results will hardly be better. In the meanwhile, Ukraine suffers from drought and a poor harvest, high unemployment, and a multi-billion dollar debt to Gazprom.
To move the country forward, Ukraine’s people must realize that the trio of Yuschenko, Yanukovich, and Timoshenko cannot deliver any progress. The question now is not so much whether Ukraine is “pro-Russia” or “pro-West” but whether Ukraine can have a functioning government. In the meanwhile, it’s worth to look once more at how the votes pan out geographically to see that Ukraine is a cleft nation.
Ukrainian Election Results by Region (Party obtaining a Plurality)
